COVID-19 Hotel Forecast: Phuket

Summary

While many are looking backwards to compare the current market environment with the post-9/11 or 2008 Great Recession periods, Phocuswright prefers to look forward – trying to address the tough questions weighing on our collective minds.

Over the coming months, by teaming up with the data science team at LodgIQ, Phocuswright will evaluate a broad swath of hotel-related and other data across a variety of key metropolitan areas. Our key objectives are to model the:

• Level of disruption
• Duration of disruption
• Shape of the recovery curve

The goal is to understand the similarities and differences in hotel market dynamics between destinations. This is especially relevant, as some markets may have yet to peak in terms of the level of infections, while others are seeing active coronavirus case counts decline.

Phuket is a major destination for international tourists, ranking in the top 15 global destinations, greeting 9.9 million international visitors annually in a pre-pandemic world. The rate of growth for COVID-19 cases is quite low in Thailand – by far the lowest in any of the destinations evaluated thus far - yet Phuket's RevPAR forecast endures progressive erosion. The decisions made by the Thai government to restart tourism prioritize public health and illustrate the fluidity of the situation with many factors at play and that are outside the control of any local, state or national jurisdiction.