COVID-19 Hotel Forecast: Key West

Summary

While many are looking backwards to compare the current market environment with the post-9/11 or 2008 Great Recession periods, Phocuswright prefers to look forward – trying to address the tough questions weighing on our collective minds.

Over the coming months, by teaming up with the data science team at LodgIQ, Phocuswright will evaluate a broad swath of hotel-related and other data across a variety of key metropolitan areas. Our key objectives are to model the:

• Level of disruption
• Duration of disruption
• Shape of the recovery curve

The goal is to understand the similarities and differences in hotel market dynamics between destinations. This is especially relevant, as some markets may have yet to peak in terms of the level of infections, while others are seeing active coronavirus case counts decline.

Key West is in the enviable position of having successfully contained the local spread of the virus, while enabling a relatively rapid rebound. For hoteliers having survived over two months of single-digit occupancy, the worst is hopefully behind them.

The latest model projects June occupancy to come in at 25%, with a YoY RevPAR decline of 74% and the forecast improves considerably in July and August. Key West's forward 90-day YoY RevPAR disruption forecast comes in at -51.7%, beating even Singapore by more than 10 points.

If all goes well, Key West should be well positioned for future improvement and its hoteliers may be the envy of the global hotel industry.