COVID-19 Hotel Forecast: Sydney

Summary

While many are looking backwards to compare the current market environment with the post-9/11 or 2008 Great Recession periods, Phocuswright prefers to look forward – trying to address the tough questions weighing on our collective minds.

Over the coming months, by teaming up with the data science team at LodgIQ, Phocuswright will evaluate a broad swath of hotel-related and other data across a variety of key metropolitan areas. Our key objectives are to model the:

• Level of disruption
• Duration of disruption
• Shape of the recovery curve

The goal is to understand the similarities and differences in hotel market dynamics between destinations. This is especially relevant, as some markets may have yet to peak in terms of the level of infections, while others are seeing active coronavirus case counts decline.

When compared to the other destinations evaluated by Phocuswright, based on LodgIQ's forecast model, Sydney trails only Singapore in seeing the least degree of disruption. As of now, it appears Sydney may be one of the rare international gateway cities that will avoid occupancy levels falling into the teens. Room occupancy is not expected to climb substantially in June, but the model predicts that caution will pay off, with July seeing occupancy rise into the 30% range.