COVID-19 Hotel Forecast: Toronto

Summary

While many are looking backwards to compare the current market environment with the post-9/11 or 2008 Great Recession periods, Phocuswright prefers to look forward – trying to address the tough questions weighing on our collective minds.

Over the coming months, by teaming up with the data science team at LodgIQ, Phocuswright will evaluate a broad swath of hotel-related and other data across a variety of key metropolitan areas. Our key objectives are to model the:

• Level of disruption
• Duration of disruption
• Shape of the recovery curve

The goal is to understand the similarities and differences in hotel market dynamics between destinations. This is especially relevant, as some markets may have yet to peak in terms of the level of infections, while others are seeing active coronavirus case counts decline.

Toronto's exceptional level of global diversity and mobility, in a population center of six million, provides the perfect environment for the coronavirus to thrive. But Toronto has done a fairly good job of controlling the outbreak – particularly when compared to their neighbors to the south.

Ontario's occupancy has risen to just above 22%. In line with the global trend, occupancies for the province as a whole and the greater Toronto region have been higher than the city's downtown core, with large convention and business-oriented hotels suffering the greatest disruption. 

As Toronto cautiously reopens, we expect the market's performance to improve further. The good news is that it appears that Toronto hoteliers are being relatively disciplined with their rate discounting – not panicking by resorting to fire sale tactics in a futile effort to spur demand.